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Predictions and Divas

October 27, 2020 by Simon Robinson Leave a Comment

It’s nearly the end of October and Ireland is back in lockdown. Our 14 day averaged national infection rate has risen to over 300. Our island is divided and the north of the island is reported within the UK national rate which is over 400. But the daily rate of infection (per head) north of the border has been four times higher than that to the south. So I guess the contrast across that border should be a source of concern for health professionals. Yet, the island politics of peace agreements and an imminent divorce has implications for border patrols and isolationist if not exclusionist travel policies.

The global inconsistencies of healthcare reporting make it really hard for the lay observer to know what is happening both locally and at large. You’d have thought the opposite would be true after eight months of ‘concerted’ effort.

It didn’t look like this in 1849.
[Read more…] about Predictions and Divas

Filed Under: Anchoritism, Fake Memoir Tagged With: daniel kahneman, geophysics, nobel prize, pandemic, robert mallet

Rank Ambiguity Persists

July 9, 2020 by Simon Robinson 3 Comments

279:409:4 ‘He was afraid she might have a scar.’

A ten year old daughter has her whole life ahead of her. This most human of fears resonated with me. But this is The Holy Land and she is already dead.

319:301:1 ‘Smadar’s face was left perfectly intact.’

A thirteen year old daughter has no life ahead of her. This most awful of human observations upset me. How can anyone call this place the Holy Land?

Apeirogon by Colum McCann is an exposition that will haunt me for the rest of my life. That’s a good thing in the same way that Primo Levi’s If This is a Man was a good thing too. I wonder if what makes a good real-life horror story work is an absence of self pity?

[Read more…] about Rank Ambiguity Persists

Filed Under: Anchoritism, Fake Memoir Tagged With: booklink, colum mccann, daniel kahneman, robert fisk

Micromort and big numbers.

April 19, 2020 by Simon Robinson Leave a Comment

I’ve decided to put my trust in the reader and dispense with long introductions and explanations. If you care what a micromort actually is, you’ll follow the links. If you don’t understand big numbers, you’ll be in good company. 

Today is the day we should have reached unorthodox Canterbury after walking out from Manchester on April Fools’ Day. Instead, like so many, I’m curfewed.

[Read more…] about Micromort and big numbers.

Filed Under: Anchoritism, Fake Memoir, ManRom2021 Tagged With: actuary, birds, booklink, computing, Covid-19, daniel kahneman, david eagleman, dinosaurs, geology, geophysics, governance, innumeracy, john berger, pandemic, seo, stephen pinker, the elders, tim harford, walking

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